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Flooding Throughout history humans have found it desirable to construct cities along streams. Streams are sources of water for consumption, agriculture, and industry. Streams provide transportation routes, energy, and a means of disposal of wastes. Stream valleys offer a relatively flat area for construction. But, human populations that live along streams also have the disadvantage that the flow of water in streams is never constant. High amounts of water flowing in streams often leads to flooding, and flooding is one of the more common and costly types of natural disasters. A flood results when a stream runs out of its confines and submerges surrounding areas. In less developed countries, humans are particularly sensitive to flood casualties because of high population density, absence of zoning regulations, lack of flood control, and lack of emergency response infrastructure and early warning systems. Bangladesh is one of the most susceptible countries to flood disasters. About one half of the land area in Bangladesh is at an elevation of less than 8 meters above sea level. Up to 30% of the country has been covered with flood waters. In 1991 more 200,000 deaths resulted from flooding and associated tropical cyclones. In industrialized countries the loss of life is usually lower because of flood control structures, zoning regulations that prevent the habitation of seriously vulnerable lands, and emergency preparedness. Still, property damage and disruption of life takes a great toll, and despite flood control structures and land use planning, floods still do occur. Causes of Flooding From a geological perspective, floods are a natural consequence of stream flow in a continually changing environment. Floods have been occurring throughout Earth history, and are expected so long as the water cycle continues to run. Streams receive most of their water input from precipitation, and the amount of precipitation falling in any given drainage basin varies from day to day, year to year, and century to century. The Role of Precipitation Weather patterns determine the amount and location of rain and snowfall. Unfortunately the amount and time over which precipitation occurs is not constant for any given area. Overall, the water cycle is a balanced system. Water flowing into one part of the cycle (like streams) is balanced by water flowing back to the ocean. But sometimes the amount flowing in to one area is greater than the capacity of the system to hold it within natural confines. The result is a flood. Combinations of factors along with exceptional precipitation can also lead to flooding. For example, heavy snow melts, water saturated ground, unusually high tides, and drainage modifications when combined with heavy rain can lead to flooding. Coastal Flooding Areas along coastlines become subject to flooding as a result of tsunamis, hurricanes (cyclonic storms), and unusually high tides. In addition, long term processes like subsidence and rising sea level as a result of global warming can lead to the encroachment of the sea on to the land. Dam & Levee Failures Dams occur as both natural and human constructed features. Natural dams are created by volcanic events (lava flows and pyroclastic flows), landslides, or blockage by ice. Human constructed dams are built for water storage, generation of electrical power, and flood control. All types of dams may fail with the sudden release of water into the downstream drainage. Spectacular and devastating examples of dam failures include that resulting in flooding downstream include: The St. Francis Dam, near Saugus, California, failed in 1929 killing 450 people. The Johnstown, Pennsylvania dam, built of earthen material (soil and rock) collapsed after a period of heavy rainfall in 1889. 2,200 people were killed by the flood. The Vaiont Dam in Italy (discussed in a previous lecture on mass-wasting) did not fail in 1963, but the landslides that moved into the reservoir behind the dam caused water to overtop the dam killing over 3,000 people. As we have seen during Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans, levee systems designed to prevent flooding can also fail and lead to catastrophic flooding and loss of life. Stream Systems A stream is a body of water that carries rock particles and dissolved ions and flows down slope along a clearly defined path, called a channel. Thus streams may vary in width from a few centimeters to several kilometers. Streams are important for several reasons Streams carry most of the water that goes from the land to the sea, and thus are an important part of the water cycle. Streams carry billions of tons of sediment to lower elevations, and thus are one of the main transporting mediums in the production of sedimentary rocks. Streams carry dissolved ions, the products of chemical weathering, into the oceans and thus make the sea salty. Streams are a major part of the erosional process, working in conjunction with weathering and mass wasting. Much of the surface landscape is controlled by stream erosion, evident to anyone looking out of an airplane window. Streams are a major source of water and transportation for the world's human population. Most population centers are located next to streams.

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Chapter I Political Science: The Discipline Robert E. Goodin Hans-Dieter Klingemann RETROSPECTIVES are, by their nature, inherently selective. Many fascinating observations are contained within the wide- ranging surveys which constitute the New Handbook of Political Science. Many more emerge from reading across all of its chapters, collectively. But, inevitably, the coverage is incomplete and, equally inevitably, somewhat idiosyncratic. All authors are forced to leave out much of merit, often simply because it does not fit their chosen narrative structure. The New Handbook's contributors tell a large part of the story of what has been happening in political science in the last two decades, but none would pretend to have told the whole story. It is the task of this introductory chapter to set those chapters in a larger disciplinary context and to pull out some of their more interesting common threads. Just as the coverage of each of the following chapters is inevitably selective, that of this overview of the overviews is, inevitably, all the more so. Of the several themes and subthemes which emerge, looking across these chapters as a whole, we shall focus upon one in particular. The New Handbook provides striking evidence of the professional maturation of political science as a discipline. This development has two sides to it. On the one side, there is increasing differentiation, with more and more sophisticated work being done within subdisciplines (and, indeed, within sub-specialities within subdisciplines). On the other side, there is increasing integration across all the separate subdisciplines. Of the two, increasing differentiation and specialization is the more familiar story, integration the more surprising one. But dearly it is the case that there is, nowadays, an increasing openness to and curiosity about what is happening in adjacent subdisciplines. An increasingly shared -3- overarching intellectual agenda across most all of the subdisciplines makes it possible for theoretical innovations to travel across subdisciplinary boundaries. An increasingly shared methodological tool-kit makes such interchange easy. All of this is facilitated, in turn, by an increasing band of synthesizers of the discipline, often intellectually firmly rooted in one particular subdiscipline but capable of speaking to many subdisciplines in terms which they find powerfully engaging. Among the many things which strike us, reading across the chapters of the New Handbook as a Whole, these are the ones that strike us most forcefully and which we will elaborate upon in this chapter. I Political science as a discipline A central claim of this chapter is that political science, as a discipline, has become increasingly mature and professionalized.1 As an important preliminary to that discussion, we must address, necessarily briefly, a few threshold questions. What is it for political science to constitute a discipline? What is politics? In what sense can the study of politics aspire to the status of a science? A The nature of a discipline Inured as we are to speaking of the subdivisions of academic learning as "disciplines" it pays to reflect upon the broader implications of that phrase. According to the Concise Oxford English Dictionary a discipline is variously defined as: "a branch of instruction; mental and moral training, adversity as effecting this; military training, drill . . .; order maintained among schoolboys, soldiers, prisoners, etc.; system of rules for conduct; control exercised over members of church; chastisement; (Ecclesiastical) mortification by penance." The last dictionary definition would seem to have only marginal application to academic disciplines, but most of the others have clear counterparts. An academic "discipline" may enjoy minimal scope to "punish," at least in the most literal senses ( Foucault 1977). Still, the community of ____________________ 1 Once "professionalized" might have equated, readily and narrowly, to "Americanized." But as alluded to in our Preface and as is evident from New Handbook contributors' affiliations, the profession itself is becoming more internationalized, both in its personnel and in its professional concerns. -4- scholars which collectively constitutes a discipline does exercise a strict supervisory function--both over those working within it and, most especially, over those aspiring to do so. The "order maintained" is not quite the same as that over soldiers or schoolboys, nor is the training strictly akin to military drill. Nonetheless, there is a strong sense (shifting over time) of what is and what is not "good" work within the discipline, and there is a certain amount of almost rote learning involved in "mastering" a discipline. All the standard terms used to describe academic disciplines hark back to much the same imagery. Many, for example, prefer to think of political analysis as more of an "art" or "craft" than a "science," strictly speaking ( Wildavsky 1979). But on that analogy the craft of politics can then only be mastered in the same manner in which all craft knowledge is acquired, by apprenticing oneself (in academic craftwork, "studying under") a recognized "master" Others like to speak of politics, as well as the academic study thereof, as a "vocation" ( Weber 1919/1946) or a "calling".2 But, tellingly, it is a vocation rather than an avocation, a job rather than a hobby; and as in the core religious meaning so too in the academic one, the "calling'' in question is to service of some higher power (be it an academic community or the Lord). Most of us, finally, talk of academic disciplines as "professions." In Dwight Waldo ( 1975: 123) delightful phrase "sciences know, professions profess." What scientists profess, however, are articles of the collective faith. Any way we look at them, then, disciplines are construed at least in large part as stern taskmasters. But the same received disciplinary traditions and practices which so powerfully mould and constrain us are at one and the same time powerfully enabling. The framework provided by the structure of a discipline's traditions both focuses research and facilitates collaboration, unintentional as well as intentional. A shared disciplinary framework makes it possible for mere journeymen to stand, productively, on the shoulders of giants. It also makes it possible for giants to build, productively, on the contributions of legions of more ordinarily gifted practitioners.3 Discipline, academic or otherwise, is thus a classic instance of a useful self-binding mechanism. Subjecting oneself to the discipline of a discipline--or in the case of Dogan's (below: chap. 3) hybrid scholars, of several--is conducive to more and indisputably better work, both individually ____________________ 2 Both Berger Invitation to Sociology ( 1963) and Medawar Advice to a Young Scientist ( 1989: esp. chap. 2) verge on this. Much the finest work in this genre remains F. M. Cornford justly celebrated Microcosmographia Academia ( 1908). 3 For powerful evidence of the way that certain discoveries are "on the cards" at some point in time, consider the cases of "multiple discoveries" discussed in Merton ( 1973). -5- and collectively. That is as true for the "chiefs" as the "indians" of the discipline, as true for the "Young Turks" as the "greybeards." Branches of academic learning are "professions" as well as disciplines. "Professional" connotes, first of all, a relatively high-status occupational grade; and the organization of national and international "professional associations" doubtless has to do, in no small part, with securing the status and indeed salaries of academics thus organized. But the term "professional'' also, and more importantly, indicates a certain attitude toward one's work. A profession is a self-organizing community, oriented toward certain well-defined tasks or functions. A professional community is characterized by, and to a large extent defined in terms of, certain self-imposed standards and norms. Incoming members of the profession are socialized into those standards and norms, ongoing members are evaluated in terms of them. These professional standards and norms not only form the basis for evaluation of professionals by one another; they are "internalized," with professionals themselves taking a "critical reflective attitude" toward their own performances in light of them.4 The specific standards and norms vary from profession to profession, of course. But across all professions there is a sense of "minimal professional competence," captured by the ritual of "qualifying examinations" for intending political scientists in North American post-graduate training programs. And across all professions there is a notion of particular "role responsibilities" attaching to membership in a profession. The professional ethics of academics do not touch on issues of life and death in quite the same way as those of doctors or lawyers, perhaps. But virtually all academic professions have increasingly formal codes of ethics, touching largely on matters to do with integrity in the conduct and promulgation of research; and all professionals are expected to adhere to them faithfully ( APSA 1991). One of our themes in this chapter is the increasing "professionalism" within political science as a whole. By this we mean, firstly, that there is increasing agreement to a "common core" which can be taken to define "minimal professional competence" within the profession. Secondly, there is an increasing tendency to judge work, one's own even more than others', in terms of increasingly high standards of professional excellence. While the minimal standards are largely shared ones, the higher aspirations are many and varied. But as in medicine so too in political science, each sub-speciality within the larger profession has its own internal stan ____________________ 4 In much the same way Hart ( 1961) depicts the norms of legal systems, more generally, being internalized. On the nature of professions and members orientation toward them, see Hughes ( 1958) and Parsons ( 1968). -6- dards of excellence, by which each member of that fraction of the profession is properly judged. And in political science just as in medicine, there is some broad sense across the profession as a whole as to how all the subspecialities sit together to form a coherent larger whole. B What is politics? The foregoing observations, by and large, pertain to academic disciplines quite generally. Disciplines are differentiated one from another in many ways, principally among them by their substantive concerns and by the methodologies that they have made their own. Although there are, as we shall argue, a number of useful "tricks" in political science's tool-kit which are shared by most members of most of its subdisciplines, Alker (below: chap. 35) is undeniably correct in saying that political science does not have--much less define itself in terms of--a single big methodological device all its own, the way that many disciplines do. Rather, political science as a discipline is defined by its substantive concerns, by its fixation on "politics" in all its myriad forms. "Politics" might best be characterized as the constrained use of social power. Following on from that, the study of politics--whether by academics or practical politicians--might be characterized, in turn, as the study of the nature and source of those constraints and the techniques for the use of social power within those constraints.5 When defining politics in terms of power, we follow many before us.6 "Power" is, by now, well known to be a fraught conceptual field.7 Respectful though we are of its complexities, we decline to let ourselves get bogged down in them. Dahl ( 1957) old neo-Weberian definition still serves well enough. In those terms, X has power over Y insofar as: (i) X is able, in one way or another, to get Y to do something (ii) that is more to X's liking, and (iii) which Y would not otherwise have done. Where our analysis departs from tradition is in defining politics in terms of the constrained use of power. To our way of thinking, unconstrained power is force, pure and simple. It is not a political power play at all, except perhaps in some degenerate, limiting-case sense. Pure force, literally ____________________ 5 This in turn gives rise to the dual foci of the discipline, identified by Almond (below: chap. 2), on "the properties of political institutions and the criteria we use to evaluate them." 6 Notable among them: Weber ( 1922/ 1978); Lassweil ( 1950; Lasswell and Kaplan 1950), Dahl ( 1963) and Duverger ( 1964/ 1966). We, like them, focus specifically on "social" power, the power of people over other people. 7 To classic texts such as Russell ( 1938), Jouvenel ( 1945/ 1948) and Dahl ( 1957; 1961b; 1963) have recently been added Lukes ( 1974), Barry ( 1989: esp. chaps. 8-11) and Morriss ( 1987). -7- speaking, is more the province of physics (or its social analogues: military science and the martial arts) than of politics.8 It is the constraints under which political actors operate, and strategic maneuvering that they occasion and that occurs within them, that seems to us to constitute the essence of politics.9 It is the analysis of those constraints--where they come from, how they operate, how political agents might operate within them--that seems to us to lie at the heart of the study of politics.10 We talk, broadly, about the use of social power (rather than, more narrowly, about its "exercise") as a gesture toward the multitude of ways in which political agents might maneuver within such constraints. We mean the term to cover intentional acts as well as unintended consequences of purposeful action ( Merton 1936). We mean it to cover covert manipulatory politics as well as overt power plays ( Schattschneider 1960; Goodin 1980; Riker 1986). We mean it to cover passive as well as active workings of power, internalized norms as well as external threats ( Bachrach and Baratz 1963; Lukes 1974). The infamous "law of anticipated reactions" non-decisions and the hegemonic shaping of people's preferences ( Laclau and Mouffe 1985) must all be accommodated in any decently expansive sense of the political. One further comment on concepts. In defining politics (and the study of it) as we do, we explicitly depart from the purely distributional tradition of Lasswell ( 1950) classic formulation of "politics" as "who gets what, when and how''11 Perhaps it is true that all political acts ultimately have distributional consequences; and perhaps it is even true that therein lies most of our interest in the phenomenon. But in terms of the meaning of the act to the actor, many political acts are at least in the first instance distinctly non- distributional. And even in the final analysis, much of the social significance--objective as well as subjective--of certain political interactions might never be reducible to crass questions of dividing up the social pie. Distributive, regulative, redistributive ( Lowi 1964) and identity ( Sandel 1982) politics may all have their own distinctive styles. ____________________ 10 In saying this, we are following (loosely) Crick 1962. 11 Or Easton ( 1965) of politics as the authoritative allocation of values--at least insofar as that is construed, first and foremost, as a matter of the allocation of"valued things" in a society. 8 Thus, an absolute dictator in quest of complete, unconstrained power would rightly be said to be engaged in an (inevitably futile) attempt to transcend politics. 9 Consider the following analogy drawn from a cognate discipline. Philosophers talk in terms of "strong" considerations, "compelling" arguments, and such like ( Nozick 1981: 4-6). But consider an argument such that if we did believe it we would die: that is about as compelling as an argument can get; but winning a point by means of such an argument seems the antithesis of real philosophical disputation, the essence of which is give-and-take. By the same token, the very essence of politics is strategic maneuvering ( Riker 1986); and irresistible forces, insofar as they leave no scope for such maneuvering, are the antithesis of politics (however successful they are at getting others to do what you want). -8- Distributional struggles are characterized, in welfare economists' terms, as squabbles over where we sit on the Paretian frontier; but getting to the Paretian frontier is itself a tricky problem, involving a lot of politicking of quite a different sort which is often distinctively non-distributional, at least in the first instance. Important though it undeniably is that our understanding of politics should be attuned to distributive struggles, then, it is equally important that it not be committed in advance to analyzing all else exclusively in terms of them. C The several sciences of politics Much ink has been sprit over the question of whether, or in what sense, the study of politics is or is not truly a science. The answer largely depends upon how much one tries to load into the term "science." We prefer a minimalist definition of science as being just "systematic enquiry, building toward an ever more highly-differentiated set of ordered propositions about the empirical world.''12 In those deliberately spartan terms, there is little reason to think that the study of politics cannot aspire to be scientific. Many, of course, mean much more than that by the term. A logical positivist might cast the aspirations of science in terms of finding some set of "covering laws" so strong that even a single counter-example would suffice to falsify them. Clearly, that sets the aspirations of science much too high ever to be attained in the study of politics. The truths of political science, systematic though they may be, are and seem inevitably destined to remain essentially probabilistic in form. The "always" and "never" of the logical positivist's covering laws find no purchase in the political world, where things are only ever "more or less likely" to happen. The reason is not merely that our explanatory model is incomplete, not merely that there are other factors in play which we have not yet managed to factor in. That will inevitably be true, too, of course. But the deeper source of such errors in the positivist model of political science lies in a misconstrual of the nature of its subject. A covering law model may (or may not: that is another issue) work well enough for billiard balls subject to the sorts of forces presupposed by models of Newtonian mechanics: there all actions can be said to be caused, and the causes can be exhaustively traced to forces acting externally upon the "actors." But human beings, while they are undeniably subject to certain causal forces as well, are also in ____________________ 12 After the fashion o

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Chapter I Political Science: The Discipline Robert E. Goodin Hans-Dieter Klingemann RETROSPECTIVES are, by their nature, inherently selective. Many fascinating observations are contained within the wide- ranging surveys which constitute the New Handbook of Political Science. Many more emerge from reading across all of its chapters, collectively. But, inevitably, the coverage is incomplete and, equally inevitably, somewhat idiosyncratic. All authors are forced to leave out much of merit, often simply because it does not fit their chosen narrative structure. The New Handbook's contributors tell a large part of the story of what has been happening in political science in the last two decades, but none would pretend to have told the whole story. It is the task of this introductory chapter to set those chapters in a larger disciplinary context and to pull out some of their more interesting common threads. Just as the coverage of each of the following chapters is inevitably selective, that of this overview of the overviews is, inevitably, all the more so. Of the several themes and subthemes which emerge, looking across these chapters as a whole, we shall focus upon one in particular. The New Handbook provides striking evidence of the professional maturation of political science as a discipline. This development has two sides to it. On the one side, there is increasing differentiation, with more and more sophisticated work being done within subdisciplines (and, indeed, within sub-specialities within subdisciplines). On the other side, there is increasing integration across all the separate subdisciplines. Of the two, increasing differentiation and specialization is the more familiar story, integration the more surprising one. But dearly it is the case that there is, nowadays, an increasing openness to and curiosity about what is happening in adjacent subdisciplines. An increasingly shared -3- overarching intellectual agenda across most all of the subdisciplines makes it possible for theoretical innovations to travel across subdisciplinary boundaries. An increasingly shared methodological tool-kit makes such interchange easy. All of this is facilitated, in turn, by an increasing band of synthesizers of the discipline, often intellectually firmly rooted in one particular subdiscipline but capable of speaking to many subdisciplines in terms which they find powerfully engaging. Among the many things which strike us, reading across the chapters of the New Handbook as a Whole, these are the ones that strike us most forcefully and which we will elaborate upon in this chapter. I Political science as a discipline A central claim of this chapter is that political science, as a discipline, has become increasingly mature and professionalized.1 As an important preliminary to that discussion, we must address, necessarily briefly, a few threshold questions. What is it for political science to constitute a discipline? What is politics? In what sense can the study of politics aspire to the status of a science? A The nature of a discipline Inured as we are to speaking of the subdivisions of academic learning as "disciplines" it pays to reflect upon the broader implications of that phrase. According to the Concise Oxford English Dictionary a discipline is variously defined as: "a branch of instruction; mental and moral training, adversity as effecting this; military training, drill . . .; order maintained among schoolboys, soldiers, prisoners, etc.; system of rules for conduct; control exercised over members of church; chastisement; (Ecclesiastical) mortification by penance." The last dictionary definition would seem to have only marginal application to academic disciplines, but most of the others have clear counterparts. An academic "discipline" may enjoy minimal scope to "punish," at least in the most literal senses ( Foucault 1977). Still, the community of ____________________ 1 Once "professionalized" might have equated, readily and narrowly, to "Americanized." But as alluded to in our Preface and as is evident from New Handbook contributors' affiliations, the profession itself is becoming more internationalized, both in its personnel and in its professional concerns. -4- scholars which collectively constitutes a discipline does exercise a strict supervisory function--both over those working within it and, most especially, over those aspiring to do so. The "order maintained" is not quite the same as that over soldiers or schoolboys, nor is the training strictly akin to military drill. Nonetheless, there is a strong sense (shifting over time) of what is and what is not "good" work within the discipline, and there is a certain amount of almost rote learning involved in "mastering" a discipline. All the standard terms used to describe academic disciplines hark back to much the same imagery. Many, for example, prefer to think of political analysis as more of an "art" or "craft" than a "science," strictly speaking ( Wildavsky 1979). But on that analogy the craft of politics can then only be mastered in the same manner in which all craft knowledge is acquired, by apprenticing oneself (in academic craftwork, "studying under") a recognized "master" Others like to speak of politics, as well as the academic study thereof, as a "vocation" ( Weber 1919/1946) or a "calling".2 But, tellingly, it is a vocation rather than an avocation, a job rather than a hobby; and as in the core religious meaning so too in the academic one, the "calling'' in question is to service of some higher power (be it an academic community or the Lord). Most of us, finally, talk of academic disciplines as "professions." In Dwight Waldo ( 1975: 123) delightful phrase "sciences know, professions profess." What scientists profess, however, are articles of the collective faith. Any way we look at them, then, disciplines are construed at least in large part as stern taskmasters. But the same received disciplinary traditions and practices which so powerfully mould and constrain us are at one and the same time powerfully enabling. The framework provided by the structure of a discipline's traditions both focuses research and facilitates collaboration, unintentional as well as intentional. A shared disciplinary framework makes it possible for mere journeymen to stand, productively, on the shoulders of giants. It also makes it possible for giants to build, productively, on the contributions of legions of more ordinarily gifted practitioners.3 Discipline, academic or otherwise, is thus a classic instance of a useful self-binding mechanism. Subjecting oneself to the discipline of a discipline--or in the case of Dogan's (below: chap. 3) hybrid scholars, of several--is conducive to more and indisputably better work, both individually ____________________ 2 Both Berger Invitation to Sociology ( 1963) and Medawar Advice to a Young Scientist ( 1989: esp. chap. 2) verge on this. Much the finest work in this genre remains F. M. Cornford justly celebrated Microcosmographia Academia ( 1908). 3 For powerful evidence of the way that certain discoveries are "on the cards" at some point in time, consider the cases of "multiple discoveries" discussed in Merton ( 1973). -5- and collectively. That is as true for the "chiefs" as the "indians" of the discipline, as true for the "Young Turks" as the "greybeards." Branches of academic learning are "professions" as well as disciplines. "Professional" connotes, first of all, a relatively high-status occupational grade; and the organization of national and international "professional associations" doubtless has to do, in no small part, with securing the status and indeed salaries of academics thus organized. But the term "professional'' also, and more importantly, indicates a certain attitude toward one's work. A profession is a self-organizing community, oriented toward certain well-defined tasks or functions. A professional community is characterized by, and to a large extent defined in terms of, certain self-imposed standards and norms. Incoming members of the profession are socialized into those standards and norms, ongoing members are evaluated in terms of them. These professional standards and norms not only form the basis for evaluation of professionals by one another; they are "internalized," with professionals themselves taking a "critical reflective attitude" toward their own performances in light of them.4 The specific standards and norms vary from profession to profession, of course. But across all professions there is a sense of "minimal professional competence," captured by the ritual of "qualifying examinations" for intending political scientists in North American post-graduate training programs. And across all professions there is a notion of particular "role responsibilities" attaching to membership in a profession. The professional ethics of academics do not touch on issues of life and death in quite the same way as those of doctors or lawyers, perhaps. But virtually all academic professions have increasingly formal codes of ethics, touching largely on matters to do with integrity in the conduct and promulgation of research; and all professionals are expected to adhere to them faithfully ( APSA 1991). One of our themes in this chapter is the increasing "professionalism" within political science as a whole. By this we mean, firstly, that there is increasing agreement to a "common core" which can be taken to define "minimal professional competence" within the profession. Secondly, there is an increasing tendency to judge work, one's own even more than others', in terms of increasingly high standards of professional excellence. While the minimal standards are largely shared ones, the higher aspirations are many and varied. But as in medicine so too in political science, each sub-speciality within the larger profession has its own internal stan ____________________ 4 In much the same way Hart ( 1961) depicts the norms of legal systems, more generally, being internalized. On the nature of professions and members orientation toward them, see Hughes ( 1958) and Parsons ( 1968). -6- dards of excellence, by which each member of that fraction of the profession is properly judged. And in political science just as in medicine, there is some broad sense across the profession as a whole as to how all the subspecialities sit together to form a coherent larger whole. B What is politics? The foregoing observations, by and large, pertain to academic disciplines quite generally. Disciplines are differentiated one from another in many ways, principally among them by their substantive concerns and by the methodologies that they have made their own. Although there are, as we shall argue, a number of useful "tricks" in political science's tool-kit which are shared by most members of most of its subdisciplines, Alker (below: chap. 35) is undeniably correct in saying that political science does not have--much less define itself in terms of--a single big methodological device all its own, the way that many disciplines do. Rather, political science as a discipline is defined by its substantive concerns, by its fixation on "politics" in all its myriad forms. "Politics" might best be characterized as the constrained use of social power. Following on from that, the study of politics--whether by academics or practical politicians--might be characterized, in turn, as the study of the nature and source of those constraints and the techniques for the use of social power within those constraints.5 When defining politics in terms of power, we follow many before us.6 "Power" is, by now, well known to be a fraught conceptual field.7 Respectful though we are of its complexities, we decline to let ourselves get bogged down in them. Dahl ( 1957) old neo-Weberian definition still serves well enough. In those terms, X has power over Y insofar as: (i) X is able, in one way or another, to get Y to do something (ii) that is more to X's liking, and (iii) which Y would not otherwise have done. Where our analysis departs from tradition is in defining politics in terms of the constrained use of power. To our way of thinking, unconstrained power is force, pure and simple. It is not a political power play at all, except perhaps in some degenerate, limiting-case sense. Pure force, literally ____________________ 5 This in turn gives rise to the dual foci of the discipline, identified by Almond (below: chap. 2), on "the properties of political institutions and the criteria we use to evaluate them." 6 Notable among them: Weber ( 1922/ 1978); Lassweil ( 1950; Lasswell and Kaplan 1950), Dahl ( 1963) and Duverger ( 1964/ 1966). We, like them, focus specifically on "social" power, the power of people over other people. 7 To classic texts such as Russell ( 1938), Jouvenel ( 1945/ 1948) and Dahl ( 1957; 1961b; 1963) have recently been added Lukes ( 1974), Barry ( 1989: esp. chaps. 8-11) and Morriss ( 1987). -7- speaking, is more the province of physics (or its social analogues: military science and the martial arts) than of politics.8 It is the constraints under which political actors operate, and strategic maneuvering that they occasion and that occurs within them, that seems to us to constitute the essence of politics.9 It is the analysis of those constraints--where they come from, how they operate, how political agents might operate within them--that seems to us to lie at the heart of the study of politics.10 We talk, broadly, about the use of social power (rather than, more narrowly, about its "exercise") as a gesture toward the multitude of ways in which political agents might maneuver within such constraints. We mean the term to cover intentional acts as well as unintended consequences of purposeful action ( Merton 1936). We mean it to cover covert manipulatory politics as well as overt power plays ( Schattschneider 1960; Goodin 1980; Riker 1986). We mean it to cover passive as well as active workings of power, internalized norms as well as external threats ( Bachrach and Baratz 1963; Lukes 1974). The infamous "law of anticipated reactions" non-decisions and the hegemonic shaping of people's preferences ( Laclau and Mouffe 1985) must all be accommodated in any decently expansive sense of the political. One further comment on concepts. In defining politics (and the study of it) as we do, we explicitly depart from the purely distributional tradition of Lasswell ( 1950) classic formulation of "politics" as "who gets what, when and how''11 Perhaps it is true that all political acts ultimately have distributional consequences; and perhaps it is even true that therein lies most of our interest in the phenomenon. But in terms of the meaning of the act to the actor, many political acts are at least in the first instance distinctly non- distributional. And even in the final analysis, much of the social significance--objective as well as subjective--of certain political interactions might never be reducible to crass questions of dividing up the social pie. Distributive, regulative, redistributive ( Lowi 1964) and identity ( Sandel 1982) politics may all have their own distinctive styles. ____________________ 10 In saying this, we are following (loosely) Crick 1962. 11 Or Easton ( 1965) of politics as the authoritative allocation of values--at least insofar as that is construed, first and foremost, as a matter of the allocation of"valued things" in a society. 8 Thus, an absolute dictator in quest of complete, unconstrained power would rightly be said to be engaged in an (inevitably futile) attempt to transcend politics. 9 Consider the following analogy drawn from a cognate discipline. Philosophers talk in terms of "strong" considerations, "compelling" arguments, and such like ( Nozick 1981: 4-6). But consider an argument such that if we did believe it we would die: that is about as compelling as an argument can get; but winning a point by means of such an argument seems the antithesis of real philosophical disputation, the essence of which is give-and-take. By the same token, the very essence of politics is strategic maneuvering ( Riker 1986); and irresistible forces, insofar as they leave no scope for such maneuvering, are the antithesis of politics (however successful they are at getting others to do what you want). -8- Distributional struggles are characterized, in welfare economists' terms, as squabbles over where we sit on the Paretian frontier; but getting to the Paretian frontier is itself a tricky problem, involving a lot of politicking of quite a different sort which is often distinctively non-distributional, at least in the first instance. Important though it undeniably is that our understanding of politics should be attuned to distributive struggles, then, it is equally important that it not be committed in advance to analyzing all else exclusively in terms of them. C The several sciences of politics Much ink has been sprit over the question of whether, or in what sense, the study of politics is or is not truly a science. The answer largely depends upon how much one tries to load into the term "science." We prefer a minimalist definition of science as being just "systematic enquiry, building toward an ever more highly-differentiated set of ordered propositions about the empirical world.''12 In those deliberately spartan terms, there is little reason to think that the study of politics cannot aspire to be scientific. Many, of course, mean much more than that by the term. A logical positivist might cast the aspirations of science in terms of finding some set of "covering laws" so strong that even a single counter-example would suffice to falsify them. Clearly, that sets the aspirations of science much too high ever to be attained in the study of politics. The truths of political science, systematic though they may be, are and seem inevitably destined to remain essentially probabilistic in form. The "always" and "never" of the logical positivist's covering laws find no purchase in the political world, where things are only ever "more or less likely" to happen. The reason is not merely that our explanatory model is incomplete, not merely that there are other factors in play which we have not yet managed to factor in. That will inevitably be true, too, of course. But the deeper source of such errors in the positivist model of political science lies in a misconstrual of the nature of its subject. A covering law model may (or may not: that is another issue) work well enough for billiard balls subject to the sorts of forces presupposed by models of Newtonian mechanics: there all actions can be said to be caused, and the causes can be exhaustively traced to forces acting externally upon the "actors." But human beings, while they are undeniably subject to certain causal forces as well, are also in ____________________ 12 After the fashion o

The last day for live

Last Update: 2014-10-28
Subject: General
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Reference: Anonymous
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Inilah Kegiatan sehari Saya Setiap hari saya bangun pagi jam setengah 6 pagi .saya langsung ke kamar mandi untuk bersihkan tubuh saya cuci muka muka dengan sabun setelah itu saya ambil air wudhu untuk sholat Subuh setelah saya sholat Subuh saya kembali lagi ke kamar mandi untuk mandi setelah mandi saya memakai pakaian dan saya dandan .setelah itu saya bereskan kamar seperti rapikan kasur menyapu jika tidak terlambat ke kampus karena saya masuk kuliah jam 8.00 pagi. Setelah saya bereskan kamar, saya langsung kunci kamar saya Lalu berangkat ke kampus, setibanya saya di kampus saya biasa ambil tempat duduk paling depan, biasanya mata kuliah saya selesai jam 12.40 kalau hari kamis biasanya saya tidak langsung pulang karena saya ada kegiatan mengaji untuk sains kurang lebih sampai jam 14.00 sore saya sholat Duhur di mesjid kampus. Setelah kegiatan sains saya selesai saya langsung pulang ke kost setibanya di kamar saya biasanya saya langsung ganti pakaian lalu saya makan, stelah makan saya sholat Ashar dan setelah sholat ashar saya beres-beres kembali dandan setelah beres-beres biasanya kalau hari selasa, kamis, sabtu saya ada les bahasa inggris di MEC .Saya kunci kamar lalu saya langsung berangkat ke MEC untuk kursus bahasa inggris.setelah kagiatan kursus saya selesai pada jam 18.00 sore Saya langsung pulang ke kost. Sesampainya di kost saya langsung ke kamar mandi untuk mandi setelah mandi memakai pakaian dan kembali lagi ke kamar mandi untuk ambil Air wudhu untuk sholat Magrib setelah Sholat magrib belajar sambil menunggu waktu sholat Isha. saat waktunya Sholat isha sudah masuk, Saya Ambil air wudhu lagi di kamar mandi setelah itu saya sholat Isha. Setelah Sholat Isha biasanya nonton film dari laptop sambil menyetrika baju untuk hari besoknya.setelah menyetrika saya baring sambil nonton film setelah nonton film saya langsung tidur malam. Itulah kegiatan sehari-hari saya

the students are learning english now

Last Update: 2014-10-13
Subject: General
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Reference: Anonymous

This Page Will Allow You To Create Your Own Ad Products. Use the Tabs To Create, Text, Image or Video Ads *NOTE Advertisers cannot purchase ads on your website until your ad zone code has been placed on your website. Once the AdHitz system verifies placement of the code, your ad zones can then be purchased. After your ad zones and types are set, you should create code to place on your website. Create code by Clicking Here. e.

Sick

Last Update: 2014-09-30
Subject: General
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googl1 00:00:00,100 --> 00:00:01,600 Previously on criminal minds... 2 00:00:01,700 --> 00:00:03,400 Elle, 2 weeks of pure heaven. 3 00:00:03,500 --> 00:00:04,600 Do not call me for anything. 4 00:00:04,700 --> 00:00:06,300 Have a great time. You all deserve a break. 5 00:00:06,400 --> 00:00:07,500 Welcome to paradise. 6 00:00:07,600 --> 00:00:09,000 Your resort is beautiful. 7 00:00:09,100 --> 00:00:12,000 A man said there had been a murder in room 19. 8 00:00:12,100 --> 00:00:13,000 Get down! Aah! 9 00:00:13,100 --> 00:00:14,500 Who are you?! 10 00:00:14,600 --> 00:00:15,800 Where is the victim's head? 11 00:00:15,900 --> 00:00:16,900 I'm here on vacation. 12 00:00:17,000 --> 00:00:18,600 From jamaica. Someone sent you a head? 13 00:00:18,600 --> 00:00:20,300 Morgan and elle are in jamaica right now. 14 00:00:20,400 --> 00:00:21,500 Agent greenaway wasn't even here 15 00:00:21,600 --> 00:00:22,600 When this man was killed. 16 00:00:22,600 --> 00:00:23,700 How did he know where we were? 17 00:00:23,800 --> 00:00:25,500 A man came to the door with something 18 00:00:25,600 --> 00:00:26,500 He said you would need right away. 19 00:00:26,600 --> 00:00:27,700 He came to the door? 20 00:00:27,700 --> 00:00:29,100 I was playing a game yesterday. 21 00:00:29,200 --> 00:00:31,500 The hacker could have gotten into my computer first. 22 00:00:31,600 --> 00:00:34,100 I have far less protection on my own laptop. 23 00:00:34,200 --> 00:00:35,500 How could you be that stupid? 24 00:00:35,600 --> 00:00:37,000 I found him. You what? 25 00:00:37,100 --> 00:00:38,100 I know who he is, the hacker, 26 00:00:38,100 --> 00:00:39,100 His name's geist. 27 00:00:39,200 --> 00:00:40,500 Now you're on a quest. 28 00:00:40,600 --> 00:00:42,200 A young girl's life depends 29 00:00:42,300 --> 00:00:43,800 On the successful completion of it. 30 00:00:43,900 --> 00:00:46,100 Aah! Aah! 31 00:00:46,200 --> 00:00:48,900 The one rule is, only the members of your team 32 00:00:49,000 --> 00:00:50,500 May participate in the quest. 33 00:00:51,800 --> 00:00:52,800 He's given us all the clues 34 00:00:52,800 --> 00:00:54,700 Needed to complete this quest, 35 00:00:54,800 --> 00:00:56,300 Including this book code. 36 00:00:56,400 --> 00:00:58,900 Each one of these sets of numbers represents a particular word. 37 00:00:58,900 --> 00:01:00,200 From what book? 38 00:01:00,200 --> 00:01:02,200 Jj, get some reporters here as soon as possible. 39 00:01:02,200 --> 00:01:04,100 Didn't he say that we had to keep this under the team? 40 00:01:04,200 --> 00:01:05,500 We're looking for this man... 41 00:01:05,500 --> 00:01:08,400 No, no, no, no, i said no outsiders. 42 00:01:08,500 --> 00:01:10,000 I'm awake. 43 00:01:10,100 --> 00:01:11,300 Anderson, take greenaway home. 44 00:01:11,400 --> 00:01:12,900 Yes, sir. Get some sleep. 45 00:01:13,000 --> 00:01:15,400 I told you, it was one rule. 46 00:01:15,500 --> 00:01:16,600 One rule! 47 00:01:21,200 --> 00:01:22,900 "The defects and faults of the mind 48 00:01:22,900 --> 00:01:25,200 "Are like wounds in the body. 49 00:01:25,200 --> 00:01:26,300 "After all imaginable care has been taken 50 00:01:26,400 --> 00:01:28,700 "To heal them up, 51 00:01:28,700 --> 00:01:32,400 Still there will be a scar left behind." 52 00:01:32,400 --> 00:01:35,000 French writer francois la rochefoucauld. 53 00:01:41,400 --> 00:01:42,500 Sir, i thought you'd want to know. 54 00:01:42,500 --> 00:01:44,700 We identified the girl in the video... 55 00:01:44,800 --> 00:01:46,400 Rebecca bryant. 56 00:01:46,400 --> 00:01:48,500 Leave it on the desk. 57 00:02:07,000 --> 00:02:09,400 Reid, how many books do you think are published in a year? 58 00:02:09,400 --> 00:02:10,600 In the whole world? 59 00:02:10,600 --> 00:02:11,700 Thousands. 60 00:02:11,800 --> 00:02:14,400 Great, and all we gotta do is find one. 61 00:02:16,100 --> 00:02:17,800 You know, i can see this unsub 62 00:02:17,800 --> 00:02:19,000 Gettin' our phone numbers and addresses 63 00:02:19,000 --> 00:02:20,000 From the bureau personnel files, 64 00:02:20,100 --> 00:02:21,400 But come on, man, 65 00:02:21,500 --> 00:02:23,700 It really says in there that gideon digs nellie fox? 66 00:02:23,800 --> 00:02:25,700 Or that jj collects butterflies? 67 00:02:25,700 --> 00:02:27,600 I didn't even know these things about us. 68 00:02:27,700 --> 00:02:29,200 "Ever would it be night, 69 00:02:29,200 --> 00:02:31,900 But always clear day to any man's sight." 70 00:02:31,900 --> 00:02:34,800 Reid, not again with the poem from the music box, please. 71 00:02:34,800 --> 00:02:35,900 There's something familiar about it. 72 00:02:36,000 --> 00:02:38,800 I think i've heard it somewhere before. 73 00:02:38,900 --> 00:02:40,400 Thought you had a photographic memory. 74 00:02:40,400 --> 00:02:41,700 Eidetic memory, 75 00:02:41,800 --> 00:02:43,100 And that's primarily related to things i read. 76 00:02:43,200 --> 00:02:45,100 Like i said, this is something i think i've heard. 77 00:02:45,200 --> 00:02:46,200 Which leaves us... 78 00:02:46,300 --> 00:02:47,200 Nowhere, that's where it leaves is. 79 00:02:47,300 --> 00:02:48,300 Not necessarily. 80 00:02:48,400 --> 00:02:49,400 How would we proceed 81 00:02:49,500 --> 00:02:52,000 If we didn't have all these clues? 82 00:02:52,100 --> 00:02:53,500 What's the first thing we'd look at? 83 00:02:53,600 --> 00:02:54,900 Victimology. 84 00:02:54,900 --> 00:02:56,500 Why this particular victim in this particular place 85 00:02:56,600 --> 00:02:57,600 At this particular time? 86 00:02:57,600 --> 00:02:59,100 We have a victim, don't we? 87 00:02:59,200 --> 00:03:01,200 Rebecca bryant. 88 00:03:01,300 --> 00:03:03,400 Missin' out of south boston, virginia. 89 00:03:03,400 --> 00:03:05,300 You can get there in a few hours if you hurry. 90 00:03:05,400 --> 00:03:07,900 Take jj. Find out everything there is to know about this girl. 91 00:03:07,900 --> 00:03:08,900 You go it. 92 00:03:08,900 --> 00:03:10,000 Been lettin' him lead us around 93 00:03:10,100 --> 00:03:11,000 Like he's somethin' more than he is. 94 00:03:11,100 --> 00:03:12,600 He's just another unsub. 95 00:03:12,600 --> 00:03:13,800 Let's start puttin' together a profile. 96 00:03:13,900 --> 00:03:15,300 What you want me to do? 97 00:03:15,400 --> 00:03:16,500 Just keep workin' on this. 98 00:03:16,500 --> 00:03:18,100 If anybody can put it together, you can. 99 00:03:40,600 --> 00:03:42,400 Please help me. 100 00:03:48,000 --> 00:03:49,000 Anderson?e translit

peedback

Last Update: 2014-07-24
Subject: General
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Reference: Anonymous
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Pentingnya SOP (Standard Operating Procedure) Keberadaan SOP (Standard Operating Procedure) sangat penting bagi operasional suatu perusahaan. Dengan SOP kita bisa mengantisipasi berbagai situasi yang mungkin terjadi dalam menjalankan bisnis kita. SOP ini harus kita perjuangkan sejak kita mendirikan perusahaan. Pada tahap awal sop ini terlihat sederhana, tetapi seiring dengan perjalanan menjalankan bisnis kita akan semakin memperlengkapi sop kita. SOP akan memberi arah bagi staf perusahaan dalan menjalankan pekerjaannya. Dengan adanya SOP maka karyawan mengetahui lingkup pekerjaannya. Dengan kejelasan ruang lingkup ini, maka job description akan jelas sehingga tidak tumpang tindih. Dengan demikian maka kinerja staf perusahaan akan terjaga dengan baik. SOP ini bisa kita bagi ke dalam berbagai bidang misalnya: 1. SOP dalam menangani calon client 2. SOP dalam mengerjakan project 3. SOP layanan purna jual 4. SOP quality control 5. SOP keuangan 6. SOP penanganan barang dan lain-lain 7. Karena sop ini memakai berbagai skill yang dimiliki beberapa staf, maka kita bisa membagi sub- sub tersebut kepada staf yang memiliki keahlian sesuai bidangnya. SOP ini harus terus dievaluasi dan dikembangkan. Dalam periode tertentu minimal 6 bulan sekali SOP harus dievaluasi dan diperbarui untuk perbaikan kinerja perusahaan secara menyeluruh.

QUERY LENGTH LIMIT EXCEDEED. MAX ALLOWED QUERY : 500 CHARS

Last Update: 2014-04-03
Subject: General
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Reference: Anonymous

Nomor : 080/SK/II/2014 12 Februari 2014 Lampiran : - Hal : Pesanan Barang Kepada Bapak Wijaya Lee toko “Pelangi Elektronik” Jl. Gatot Subroto No. 26 Jakarta Selatan Dengan Hormat, Berdasarkan informasi yang kami terima dari brousur anda pada tanggal 05 februari 2014, no 55/PE/SP/II/2014 kami ingin memesang barang-barang elektronik di toko anda yaitu sebagai berikut : No NAMA BARANG MEREK BANYAKNYA HARGA JUMLAH 1 Netbook Aple 2 buah Rp.5.000.000 Rp.20.000.000 2 Laptop Toshiba 3 buah Rp.4.000.000 Rp.12.000.000 3 Printer Cannon 6 buah Rp.400.000 Rp.2.400.000 4 LCD Thosiba 1 buah Rp.5.000.000 RP.5.000.000 Kami berharap barang-barang yang dipesan tiba di perusahaan paling lambat 1 minggu setelah pemesanan. Mengenai pembayaran akan segera kami kirimkan setelah barang kami terima. Atas perhatian dan kerjasama Saudara kami mengucapkan terima kasih. Hormat kami, Wahyudi Sri lokeswara,ST Manager Pemasaran

Afrikaans

Last Update: 2014-02-25
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Reference: Wikipedia

1 Predicting Australian Takeover Targets: A Logit Analysis Maurice Peat* Maxwell Stevenson* * Discipline of Finance, School of Finance, The University of Sydney Abstract Positive announcement-day adjusted returns to target shareholders in the event of a takeover are well documented. Investors who are able to accurately predict firms that will be the subject of a takeover attempt should be able to earn these excess returns. In this paper a series of probabilistic regression models were developed that use financial statement variables suggested by prior research as explanatory variables. The models, applied to in-sample and out-of-sample data, led to predictions of takeover targets that were better than chance in all cases. The economic outcome resulting from holding a portfolio of the predicted targets over the prediction period are also analysed. Keywords: takeovers, targets, prediction, classification, logit analysis JEL Codes: G11, G17, G23, G34 This is a draft copy and not to be quoted. 2 1. Introduction In this paper our aim is to accurately predict companies that will become takeover targets. Theoretically, if it is possible to predict takeovers with accuracy greater than chance, it should be possible to generate abnormal returns from holding a portfolio of the predicted targets. Evidence of abnormal returns of 20% to 30% made by shareholders of firms on announcement of a takeover bid is why prediction of these events is of interest to academics and practitioners alike. The modelling approach adopted in this study was based on the discrete choice approach used by Palepu (1986) and Barnes (1999). The models were based on financial statement information, using variables suggested by the numerous theories that have been put forward to explain takeover activity. The performance of the models was evaluated using statistical criteria. Further, the predictions from the models were rated against chance and economic criteria through the formation and tracking of a portfolio of predicted targets. Positive results were found under both evaluation criteria. Takeover prediction studies are a logical extension of the work of Altman (1968) who used financial statement information to explain corporate events. Early studies by Simkowitz and Monroe (1971) and Stevens (1973) were based on the Multiple Discriminant Analysis (MDA) technique. Stevens (1973) coupled MDA with factor analysis to eliminate potential multicollinearity problems and reported a predictive accuracy of 67.5%, suggesting that takeover prediction was viable. Belkaoui (1978) and Rege (1984) conducted similar analyses in Canada with Belkaoui (1978) confirming the results of these earlier researchers and reporting a predictive accuracy of 85% . Concerns were raised by Rege (1984) who was unable to predict with similar accuracy. These concerns were also raised in research by others such as Singh (1971) and Fogelberg, Laurent, and McCorkindale (1975). Reacting to the wide criticism of the MDA method, researchers began to use discrete choice models as the basis of their research. Harris et al. (1984) used probit analysis to develop a model and found that it had extremely high explanatory power, but were unable to discriminate between target and non-target firms with any degree of accuracy. Dietrich and Sorensen (1984) continued this work using a logit model and achieved a classification accuracy rate of 90%. Palepu (1986) addressed a number of methodological problems in takeover prediction. He suggested the use of statebased prediction samples where a number of targets were matched with non-targets 3 for the same sample period. While this approach was appropriate for the estimation sample, it exaggerated accuracies within the predictive samples because the estimated error rates in these samples were not indicative of error rates within the population of firms. He also proposed the use of an optimal cut-off point derivation which considered the decision problem at hand. On the basis of this rectified methodology, along with the application of a logit model to a large sample of US firms, Palepu (1986) provided evidence that the ability of the model was no better than a chance selection of target and non-target firms. Barnes (1999) also used the logit model and a modified version of the optimal cut-off rule on UK data. His results indicated that a portfolio of predicted targets may have been consistent with Palepu’s finding, but he was unable to document this in the UK context due to model inaccuracy. In the following section the economic explanations underlying takeover activity are discussed. Section 3 outlines our takeover hypotheses and describes the explanatory variables that are used in the modelling procedure. The modelling framework and data used in the study is contained in Section 4, while the results of our model estimation, predictions, classification accuracy and portfolio economic outcomes are found in Section 5. We conclude in Section 6. 2. Economic explanations of takeover activity Economic explanations of takeover activity have suggested the explanatory variables that were included in this discrete choice model development study. Jensen and Meckling (1976) posited that agency problems occurred when decision making and risk bearing were separated between management and stakeholders1, leading to management inefficiencies. Manne (1965) and Fama (1980) theorised that a mechanism existed that ensured management acted in the interests of the vast number of small non-controlling shareholders2. They suggested that a market for corporate control existed in which alternative management teams competed for the rights to control corporate assets. The threat of acquisition aligned management objectives with those of stakeholders as managers are terminated in the event of an acquisition in order to rectify inefficient management of the firm’s assets. Jensen and Ruback (1983) suggested that both capital gains and increased dividends are available to an 1 Stakeholders are generally considered to be both stock and bond holders of a corporation. 2 We take the interests of shareholders to be in the maximization of the present value of the firm. 4 acquirer who could eliminate the inefficiencies created by target management, with the attractiveness of the firm for takeover increasing with the level of inefficiency. Jensen (1986) looked at the agency costs of free cash flow, another form of management inefficiency. In this case, free cash flow referred to cash flows in excess of positive net present value (NPV) investment opportunities and normal levels of financial slack (retained earnings). The agency cost of free cash flow is the negative NPV value that arises from investing in negative NPV projects rather than returning funds to investors. Jensen (1986) suggested that the market value of the firm should be discounted by the expected agency costs of free cash flow. These, he argued, were the costs that could be eliminated either by issuing debt to fund an acquisition of stock, or through merger with, or acquisition of a growing firm that had positive NPV investments and required the use of these excess funds. Smith and Kim (1994) combined the financial pecking order argument of Myers and Majluf (1984) with the free cash flow argument of Jensen (1986) to create another motivational hypothesis that postulated inefficient firms forgo profitable investment opportunities because of informational asymmetries. Further, Jensen (1986) argued that, due to information asymmetries that left shareholders less informed, management was more likely to undertake negative NPV projects rather than returning funds to investors. Smith and Kim (1994) suggested that some combination of these firms, like an inefficient firm and an efficient acquirer, would be the optimal solution to the two respective resource allocation problems. This, they hypothesised, would result in a market value for the combined entity that exceeded the sum of the individual values of the firms. This is one form of financial synergy that can arise in merger situations. Another form of financial synergy is that which results from a combination of characteristics of the target and bidding firms. Jensen (1986) suggested that an optimal capital structure exists, whereby the marginal benefits and marginal costs of debt are equal. At this point, the cost of capital for a firm is minimised. This suggested that increases in leverage will only be viable for those firms who have free cash flow excesses, and not for those which have an already high level of debt. Lewellen (1971) proposed that in certain situations, financial efficiencies may be realized without the realization of operational efficiencies. These efficiencies relied on a simple Miller and Modigliani (1964) model. It proposed that, in the absence of corporate taxes, an increase in a firm’s leverage to reasonable levels would increase the value of the equity share of the company due to a lower cost of capital. By a 5 merger of two firms, where either one or both had not utilised their borrowing capacity, would result in a financial gain. This financial gain would represent a valuation gain above that of the sum of the equity values of the individual firms. However, this result is predicated on the assumption that the firms need to either merge or be acquired in order to achieve this result. Merger waves are well documented in the literature. Gort (1969) suggested that industry disturbances are the source of these merger waves, his argument being that they occurred in response to discrepancies between the valuation of a firm by shareholders and potential acquirers. As a consequence of economic shocks (such as deregulation, changes in input or output prices, etc.), expectations concerning future cash flow became more variable. This results in an increased probability that the value the acquirer places on a potential target is greater than its current owner’s valuation. The result is a possible offer and subsequent takeover. Mitchell and Mulherin (1996), in their analysis of mergers and acquisitions in the US during the 1980s, provided evidence that mergers and acquisitions cluster by industries and time. Their analysis confirmed the theoretical and empirical evidence provided by Gort (1969) and provided a different view suggesting that mergers, acquisitions, and leveraged buyouts were the least cost method of adjusting to the economic shocks borne by an industry. These theories suggested a clear theoretical base on which to build takeover prediction models. As a result, eight main hypotheses for the motivation of a merger or acquisition have been formulated, along with twenty three possible explanatory variables to be incorporated predictive models. 3. Takeover hypotheses and explanatory variables The most commonly accepted motivation for takeovers is the inefficient management hypothesis.3 The hypothesis states that inefficiently managed firms will be acquired by more efficiently managed firms. Accordingly, H1: Inefficient management will lead to an increased likelihood of acquisition. Explanatory variables suggested by this hypothesis as candidates to be included in the specifications of predictive models included: 1. ROA (EBIT/Total Assets – Outside Equity Interests) 3 It is also known as the disciplinary motivation for takeovers. 6 2. ROE (Net Profit After Tax / Shareholders Equity – Outside Equity Interests) 3. Earnings Before Interest and Tax Margin (EBIT/Operating Revenue) 4. EBIT/Shareholders Equity 5. Free Cash Flow (FCF)/Total Assets 6. Dividend/Shareholders Equity 7. Growth in EBIT over past year, along with an activity ratio, 8. Asset Turnover (Net Sales/Total Assets) While there are competing explanations for the effect that a firm’s undervaluation has on the likelihood of its acquisition by a bidder, there is consistent agreement across all explanations that the greater the level of undervaluation then the greater the likelihood a firm will be acquired. The hypothesis that embodies the impact of these competing explanations is as follows: H2: Undervaluation of a firm will lead to an increased likelihood of acquisition. The explanatory variable suggested by this hypothesis is: 9. Market to book ratio (Market Value of Securities/Net Assets) The Price Earnings (P/E) ratio is closely linked to the undervaluation and inefficient management hypotheses. The impact of the P/E ratio on the likehood of acquisition is referred to as the P/E hypothesis: H3: A high Price to Earnings Ratio will lead to a decreased likelihood of acquisition. It follows from this hypothesis that the P/E ratio is a likely candidate as an explanatory variable for inclusion in models for the prediction of potential takeover targets. 10. Price/Earnings Ratio The growth resource mismatch hypothesis is the fourth hypothesis. However, the explanatory variables used in models specified to examine this hypothesis capture growth and resource availability separately. This gives rise to the following: H4: Firms which possess low growth / high resource combinations or, alternatively, high growth / low resource combinations will have an increased likelihood of acquisition. The following explanatory variables suggested by this hypothesis are: 7 11. Growth in Sales (Operating Revenue) over the past year 12. Capital Expenditure/Total Assets 13. Current Ratio (Current Assets/Current Liabilities) 14. (Current Assets – Current Liabilities)/Total Assets 15. Quick Assets (Current Assets – Inventory)/Current Liabilities The behaviour of some firms to pay out less of their earnings in order to maintain enough financial slack (retained earnings) to exploit future growth opportunities as they arise, has led to the dividend payout hypothesis: H5: High payout ratios will lead to a decreased likelihood of acquisition. The obvious explanatory variable suggested by this hypothesis is: 16. Dividend Payout Ratio Rectification of capital structure problems is an obvious motivation for takeovers. However, there has been some argument as to the impact of low or high leverage on acquisition likelihood. This paper proposes a hypothesis known as the inefficient financial structure hypothesis from which the following hypothesis is derived. H6: High leverage will lead to a decreased likelihood of acquisition. The explanatory variables suggested by this hypothesis include: 17. Net Gearing (Short Term Debt + Long Term Debt)/Shareholders Equity 18. Net Interest Cover (EBIT/Interest Expense) 19. Total Liabilities/Total Assets 20. Long Term Debt/Total Assets The existence of Merger and Acquisition (M&A) activity waves, where takeovers are clustered in wave-like profiles, have been proposed as indicators of changing levels of M&A activity over time. It has been argued that the identification of M&A waves, with the corresponding improved likelihood of acquisition when the wave is surging, captures the effect of the rate of takeover activity at specific points in time, and serves as valuable input into takeover prediction models. Consistent with M&A activity waves and their explanation as a motivation for takeovers is the industry disturbance hypothesis: 8 H7: Industry merger and acquisition activity will lead to an increased likelihood of acquisition. An industry relative ratio of takeover activity is suggested by this hypothesis: 21. The numerator is the total bids launched in a given year, while the denominator is the average number of bids launched across all the industries in the ASX. Size will have an impact on the likelihood of acquisition. It seems plausible that smaller firms will have a greater likelihood of acquisition due to larger firms generally having fewer bidding firms with the resources to acquire them. This gives rise to the following hypothesis: H8: The size of a firm will be negatively related to the likelihood of acquisition. Explanatory variables that can be employed to control for size include: 21. Log (Total Assets) 22. Net Assets 4. Data and Method The data requirements for the variables defined above are derived from the financial statements and balance sheet date price information for Australian listed companies. The financial statement information was sourced from the AspectHuntley data base which includes annual financial statement data for all ASX listed companies between 1995 and 2006. The database includes industry classifications for all firms included in the construction of industry relative ratios. Lists of takeover bids and their respective success were obtained from the Connect4 database. This information enabled the construction of variables for relative merger activity between industries. Additionally, stock prices from the relevant balance dates of all companies were sourced from the AspectHuntley online database, the SIRCA Core Price Data Set and Yahoo! Finance. 4.1 The Discrete Choice Modelling Framework The modelling procedure used is the nominal logit model, made popular in the bankruptcy prediction literature by Ohlson (1980) and, subsequently, in the takeover prediction literature by Palepu (1986). Logit models are commonly utilised for dichotomous state problems. The model is given by equations [1] to [3] below. 9 [3] The logit model was developed to overcome the rigidities of the Linear Probability Model in the presence of a binary dependent variable. Equations [1] and [2] show the existence of a linear relationship between the log-odds ratio (otherwise known as the logit Li) and the explanatory variables. However, the relationship between the probability of the event and acquisition likelihood is non-linear. This non-linear relationship has a major advantage that is demonstrated in equation [3]. Equation [3] measures the change in the probability of the event as a result of a small increment in the explanatory variables, . When the probability of the event is high or low, the incremental impact of a change in an explanatory variable on the likelihood of the event will be compressed, requiring a large change in the explanatory variables to change the classification of the observation. If a firm is clearly classified as a target or non-target, a large change in the explanatory variables is required to change its classification. 4.2 Sampling Schema Two samples were used in the model building and evaluation procedure. They were selected to mimic the problem faced by a practitioner attempting to predict takeover targets into the future. The first sample was used to estimate the model and to conduct in-sample classification. It was referred to as the Estimation Sample. This sample was based on financial data for the 2001 and 2002 financial years for firms that became takeover targets, as well as selected non-targets, between January, 2003 and D

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Dear Pak Lim, FYI, Berdasarkan program mengenai laporan harian via Email yang sudah berjalan dan kelengkapan pendukung diatas kapal armada PT BAL, saya ingin melaporkan bahwa ada beberapa fasilitas laptop diatas kapal maupun kantor yang mengalami kerusakan, yaitu di kapal TJA 286, TJA 285, TJA 2812, PEC 249, dan laptop radio, tercatat pembelian laptop tersebut pada tanggal 6/5/2012 dan laporan kerusakan pertama dari TJA 2812 pada tanggal 12/12/2012, TJA 286 Tanggal 31 Desember 2012, Tja 285 Tanggal 3/04/2013 dan PEC 249 pada bulan May 2013 dan sampai sekarang masih belum bisa diperbaiki karena kerusakan pada VGA card yang menyatu dengan mainboardnya, langkah yang sudah diambil untuk mengatasi masalah ini sudah kita bawa ke DATACOM dan pihak DATACOM sendiri sampai sekarang kesulitan untuk mencari sparepart yang sama dengan spesifikasi laptop tersebut karena menurut mereka seri laptop Toshiba L740 sudah tidak diproduksi lagi dan kalaupun ada harga untuk mainboardnya sama dengan harga laptop yang baru. Demikian pemberitahuan ini saya buat untuk kelancaran operasional PT BAL, Terimakasih atas perhatiannya dan mohon saran dari Bapak. Best Regards, Wawan/Herman

translation of Britons to Indonesia

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Koneksi ke %s tidak aman, dan tidak disarankan untuk mengirim/menerima informasi yang sensitif.\n\nKomunikasi dilakukan menggunakan text saja, dan tidak ada jaminan keabsahan server

The connection to %s is insecure, and should not be used to exchange sensitive information.\n\nThe communication is done in plain text, and there is no way to guarantee the identity of the server.

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