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defense forces : rather than predict the outcome of an israeli - iranian confrontation , the authors calculate how many out of the 50 israeli planes would have to reach their three targets for the operation to succeed . they figure 24 planes must reach natanz , 6 to isfahan , and 5 to arak , or 35 all together . turned around , that means the iranian defenders minimally must stop 16 of 50 planes , or one - third of the strike force . the authors consider this attrition rate “ considerable” for natanz and “ almost unimaginable” for the other two targets . in all , raas - long find that the relentless modernization of israel ' s air force gives it “ the capability to destroy even well - hardened targets in iran with some degree of confidence . ” comparing an iranian operation to israel ' s 1981 attack on iraq ' s osirak nuclear reactor , which was a complete success , they find this one “ would appear to be no more risky” than the earlier one .
रास और लांग ने पूर्ण रूप से इसकी सम्भावना पर ध्यान केन्द्रित किया है न कि राजनीतिक इच्छा या रणनीतिक परिणाम पर । क्या इजरायल के राष्ट्रीय कमान को ईरानी आधारभूत अवसंरचना को नष्ट करने का निर्णय लेना चाहिए और क्या इसकी सेना इस मिशन को पूर्ण कर पायेगी ? लेखकों ने सफल आक्रमण के पाँच भागों पर विचार किया है ।